Scenarios

They are not about predcting the future but explaing possoble outcomes

Used for long term planing to structure and order one's perceptions

Write a scenario

• Identify issues
• Identify scope (time frame)
• Est background PEST
• Identify driving forces behind issues
• identify critical uncertainties
• Combine driving forces and uncertainties to create alternative futures
• Validate alternative futures
• Analyse scenarios for similarities, differences dependence
• Develop strategy