Strategy and Practice 4 - Future Focused Strategy
- Scenarios looks at the future and possible logical factors
- They halp tell a story about possible futures
- Help plan anticpate needs
Scenarios are particularly impostant in capital intensive investments in turbulen regions - Oil
- It helps to reduce uncertainty and risk
A way to start is to look at known factors using PEST - a need to look at Macro risk - political and micro risk - the project itself
Risk Assessment Techniques
- Delphi
- Multivariate analysis
Risk Indices - BERI, EIU - Can you quantify risk and what about the sft factors? !!Describing Uncertainties
- Start with critical uncertainties in the business and business environment
- They can be a mix of optimistic and pessimistic
- Develop scenarios as stories or narratives - plausible
- Cluster scenarios on a 2x2 table for instance
!!Building Scenarios
- Develop a list of driving forces issues or trends
- Decide on a number of possible futures
- Use extenal parties to remove blind spots
- Decide what the strategic implictions of each scenario
- Reflect startegy back to the organization and look for gaps
- Indicate what key indicators are need to determine trends that signify which scenario is coming true
Strategy as Intention
Purposeful planning Two assumptions Agency Theory Those who have d-m also have discretion Strategic Intent - envisioning a desired leadership position
The problem is that other orgs are also purposeful so anticipation of others is also needed
Should be analyzed at the organizational and employee level
Pleople like Intent - Jack Welch type of purposeful intent trying to change the context and not just respond to it
!!Strategy as Anticipation Game Theory
- irrational exuberance herd-like activity - Stock Prices, House Prices
Sttaetgic context is moving towards boinded rationality, co-opetition so maybe game theory is limioted now
Bklending Intention and Anticipation Intention..................Anticipation High........................Low.............Myopic High........................H................Maneuvering Low........................L.................Meandering L............................H.................Meditative
